• Favorites are the least consistent performers of the four major sports.

• Select teams with great quarterbacks - it's a quarterback driven league.

• Favor teams with cold weather home field playoff potential.

• Avoid "trendy picks", historically weaker teams that surprised the prior year.

• Avoid teams in tough divisions. Even if they make the playoffs, road games loom.

• Avoid teams with quarterbacks in their first or second year in the league.

• Beware teams in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing the prior year. 

• The NFC/AFC are tied - 29 wins each

• AFC has won 7 of the last 10

• Consecutive Wins: NFC- 13 (1985-1997), AFC- 5 (1973-1977)

• Won 11 of last 21 games outright 52%

• Covered the spread in 13 of the last 17 and 17 of the last 23

• Avoid teams with pre-season odds greater than 22-1, they've won only 7 off 47 times (15%) from 1977-2024 and only 5 of 41 (12%) from 1983-2023.

• A great sweet spot is teams from 10-1 to 16-1, they've won 15 of 47 times (32%) from 1977 to 2023..

• Another sweet spot is teams between 10-1 and 22-1, winning 19 0f 47 times (40%) from 1977 to 2023.

• 30 of 34 teams (88%) that won had preseason projected wins of 9.5 or over (based on a 17-game season).

Super Bowl point spread favorites win 66% of the time but fail recently versus the spread:

• Win-loss record all-time: 38-20

• Versus the spread all-time: 29-27-2

• Since 2000 versus spread: 6-17, 26%

Super Bowl underdogs by 10 points or more have won a remarkable 36% of games.

•  Win-Loss record: 5-9

•  Versus the spread: 6-7-1​

Super Bowl LVIX Favorites

San Francisco +550

Kansas City +600

Baltimore +950

Buffalo +1000

Detroit +1200

Cincinnati +1300

Dallas +1400

Miami +1700

Super Bowl champs record of repeating the following year as champs:

• Teams repeated 9 times all-time in 57 tries or only 16%, twice in 24 times since 2000 or only 8%.

• No team has won 3 in a row.

• Losing Super Bowl teams returned the following year only 7 times in 57 or 12%.