• Favorites are the least consistent performers of the four major sports.

• Select teams with great quarterbacks - it's a quarterback driven league.

• Favor teams with cold weather home field playoff potential.

• Avoid "trendy picks", historically weaker teams that surprised the prior year.

• Avoid teams in tough divisions. Even if they make the playoffs, road games loom.

• Avoid teams with quarterbacks in their first or second year in the league.

• Beware teams in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing the prior year. 

• The NFC leads the AFC 30 to 29 wins

• AFC has won 7 of the last 11

• Consecutive Wins: NFC- 13 (1985-1997), AFC- 5 (1973-1977)

• Won 12 of last 22 games outright, 55%

• Covered the spread in 14 of the last 18, 78% and 18 of the last 24, 75%

• Avoid teams with pre-season odds greater than 22-1, they've won only 7 off 48 times (15%) from 1977-2024 and only 5 of 42 (12%) from 1983-2024.

• A great sweet spot is teams from 10-1 to 16-1, they've won 16 of 48 times (33%) from 1977 to 2024..

• Another sweet spot is teams between 10-1 and 22-1, winning 20 0f 48 times (42%) from 1977 to 2024.

• 31 of 35 teams (89%) that won had preseason projected wins of 9.5 or over (adjusted for 17-game season).

Super Bowl point spread favorites win 66% of the time but fail recently versus the spread:

• Win-loss record all-time: 38-21, 64%

• Versus the spread all-time: 29-28-2

• Since 2000 versus spread: 6-18, 24%

Super Bowl underdogs by 10 points or more have won a remarkable 36% of games.

•  Win-Loss record: 5-9

•  Versus the spread: 6-7-1​

Super Bowl LX Favorites (3/2/25)

Philadelphia +650

Kansas City +700

Baltimore +700

Buffalo +700

Detroit +900

San Francisco +1400

Cincinnati +1800

Green Bay/Washington +1900

Super Bowl champs record of repeating the following year as champs:

• Teams repeated 9 times all-time in 58 tries or only 16%, twice in 25 times since 2000 or only 8%.

• No team has won 3 in a row.

• Losing Super Bowl teams returned the following year only 7 times in 58 or 12%.