Patriots Deflategate Story
Situation Background
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Before, during and after the Patriots January 19, 2015 dominating AFC Championship win, the Colts accuse the Pats of deflating game balls.
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The Patriots and Tom Brady denied any wrong doing or knowledge of overly deflated balls for this game.
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The NFL hired the highly regarded Wells law firm and engineering firm Exponent to investigate the case and file a report.
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The NFL published the Wells Report of the investigation on May 6, 2015.
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On May 19, 12015 Patriots Owner Robert Kraft agreed not to appeal a $1 million fine and loss of two draft picks.
Wells Report
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The NFL published the Wells Report of the investigation on May 6, 2015.
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Ted Wells is a Harvard Law graduate and lawyer for Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton and Garrison, LLC of Manhattan, New York who have NFL investigation experience.
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Exponent is a highly regarded engineering firm with over 900 scientists and specialists.
Key Wells Report Findings and Missteps
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The study while not completely decisive, concludes the Patriots are "more probable than not" to have deflated balls prior to the Colts game.
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The Patriots were "substantially cooperative" during the investigation.
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The assessment that the Patriots balls in the first half as measured by two league officials were found to be, on average, deflated to 11.3 pounds, 1.2 pounds or 9.6% below league minimum of 12.5. The Colts balls were measured to be within league rules. Exponent had tested ball inflating gauges and concluded they were calibrated properly. A later investigation finds the ball gauges were not.
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Video tape shows ball staff member McNally removing the balls from the officials locker room after officials checked the inflation levels which is against league rules. And he did not take them straight to the field as league rules mandate, but to a rest room which he locked behind him.
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Exponent tests conclude the 13 balls could be deflated in 1 minute, 40 seconds, less time than McNally was in the rest room.
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Referee Anderson noted when he looked for the Patriots balls when reaching the sideline he could not find them for the first time in his 19 year career.
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McNally's explanations for going into the restroom varied in consistency.
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Exponent concluded Belichick's deflation theory that balls deflated due to pre-game rubdowns and low game time temperature to be scientifically unsound as it could scientifically only effect ball pressure by 1/2 pound per square inch and only be temporary in nature for about 60 minutes. Halftime, when the balls were rechecked, was two hours later.
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Equipment Manager Jastremski stated Brady called him into the QB Room at a time approximating the Colts game, the first time any Patriots QB had done so in 22 years of his employment there. He indicated they "may have talked about deflating balls".
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Brady texted Jastremski before the game stating [McNally] "must have a lot of stress" [concerning game ball pressure].
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Brady claimed he did not even know who equipment staff member McNally was. Texts indicate this is not true.
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Brady claimed no knowledge after the game of league rules on ball inflation, yet in 2006 he and Peyton Manning were the initiators of the change in that very rule to allow teams to deflate/inflate their own balls as long as they were in the prescribed range. In 2014 after a Jets game Brady referenced the rule in detail.
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Texts between Jastremski and McNally concerning deflating balls including which needles work best and irritation toward Brady clearly imply regular conversations between the parties. Why are their ongoing discussions of footballs? Can't Brady tell them once to deflate to 12.5 pounds?
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Texts detail autographed gifts from Brady for McNally in exchange for deflating balls.
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Investigators conclude it is "unlikely that Patriots staff would deflate balls without Brady's knowledge". Former players agree strongly.
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The Patriots refused to allow a follow-up (fifth) interview of investigators with McNally.
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Brady refused the investigators request to review his text and email communications with Patriots officials present concerning the matter.
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The Wells report concludes that Brady "was not entirely credible"..
Our Investigation and Assessment
While the evidence in this investigation is largely circumstantial and lacks video of the staff actually deflating balls or direct instruction from Brady to do so, the circumstantial evidence is considerable as reported by a former player on the NFL Network. Brady contradicts himself on several occasions raising legitimate suspicion.
There are three statistical studies that indicate statistical ball control abnormalities in that the Patriots fumble ratios compared to opponents over recent periods raise eyebrows: a) the Patriots had 34% less fumbles than the next closest team from 2010- 2014 while the fumble distribution among all other teams was 7% or less, 2) the Patriots fumbled 70% less than the average of all other teams from 2010-2014 when playing outdoors where fumbles are more prevalent, 3) our NFL Sideline study (NFL Sideline Fumble Study) reveals from 2005-2014 Patriots running backs who also played for other teams shows the running backs fumbled 68% less while playing for the Patriots versus those running backs when playing for other teams. Most experts conclude that less inflated balls should equate to less fumbles (as well as better passing for quarterbacks preferring less inflation). Some assert that Bill Belichick is such a great coach that he is capable of "coaching up" a team to extreme, out of the norm, ball security levels. While we believe there is a material difference between the elite coaches and the bottom ranks in general, we strongly believe the coaching of fundamentals so basic as ball security is extremely unlikely by the laws of probability to result in such a difference in fumble ratios noted here. A scientist from nflproject.com concluded [point a) above] the probability of the 34% / 7% uneven distribution of fumbles over a five-year period based on normal fumble distribution to be 16,233 to 1.
The circumstantial evidence including Brady's destruction of his phone the day before he was likely to be asked to give it to NFL officials tells us he knew of the illegal deflation. But the league over-penalized Brady via the four game suspension it handed out given the lack of direct evidence. The league investigation and punishment was misguided severely and they should have considered a one or two game suspension. The lack of consistency in NFL punishment over time is clear and the high number of appeal based penalty reductions by Commissioner Goodell show a serious lack of a fair system. To that degree, the September 2, 2015 court overruling of the case is justified, not so much due to lack of evidence since circumstantial evidence is worthy in civil cases, but due to the ill-fated process the league engaged in.
The Patriots are not innocent of the deflation given their agreement not to appeal the fine and loss of draft picks. Fans defenses of the allegations include excuses like "other teams do it" and "everyone does it" don't stick here. It is true that every team has been caught cheating over time. But any theory that other teams have deflated balls has no supporting evidence. Some fans state it's not enough of an important rule to receive a penalty for breaking. Ultimately the league cannot get involved in ignoring some rules and reinforcing others. If a rule is deemed not material enough to be supported, then the league should eliminate it.
It is curious that Coach Belichick avoids punishment given the league's precedent when Sean Payton was penalized for "not knowing about Bountygate" and was suspended anyway, the league stating said he should have known the on-goings of his team. If Bill Belichick can be praised for his detailed knowledge of his team from head to toe, he needs to take the criticism and penalty for Deflategate accordingly whether he knew or not.