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TEAM predictions

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Division Winner

Atlanta - 10-7

2024 Power Rank: 12th    2023 DVOA: 28th    2024 Schedule: 1st

The Falcons finished '23 7-10 despite unimpressive offensive & defensive DVOA ranked #24. They got a quality QB in Cousins for decent weapons, RB Robinson & receivers London, Pitts Mooney & Moore. They will score much more, particularly with their #6 ranked PFF o-line. The defense is less impressive with little star power & a very limited pass rush. New Coach Morris should help here. We like the Falcons to win the division based on their offense & #1 easiest schedule. 

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2nd Place Finish

Tampa Bay - 8-9

2024 Power Rank: 18th    2023 DVOA: 18th    2024 Schedule: 11th

QB Mayfield was very good in '23 with a career year & was resigned. They should score points given their quality WR's Godwin & Evans & an average o-line. The defense is good with talent at each level featuring DT Vae, LB David, CB Dean and S Winfield, Jr. We think Mayfield will regress as OC Canales, who is credited with Mayfield's improvement (as well as other NFL QB's) took the Carolina head coaching job.  

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3rd Place Finish

New Orleans - 7-10

2024 Power Rank: 20th    2023 DVOA: 15th    2024 Schedule: 5th

With Saints averaged 8 wins in Coach Allen's 1st 2 years. Cap problems have decimated the previously effective o-line, now ranked #32, dead last. That leaves QB Carr in peril, especially with RB Kamara's tanking  stats - lower total yards, yards per touch & TD's. Carr has established good repor with WR's Olave & Shaheed. Their offense & defense DVOA numbers are average. Only a 5th easiest schedule gets them to 7 wins.

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4th Place Finish

Carolina - 5-12

2024 Power Rank: 32rd    2023 DVOA: 32nd    2024 Schedule: 10th

Two coaches in 2 years, not good. Canales must revive QB Bryce Young and a punch-less offense ranked #31 by DVOA. The #20 ranked '24 o-line (PFF) doesn't help. Their #25 defense was little better in '23 & now has traded top dog LB Burns. DT Brown & CB Horn lead a questionable defensive lineup. Free agent signings were not exciting, overpaying for 2 o-linemen. Even the 10th easiest schedule won't save them, but we expect they will be more competitive than in 2023.  

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