TEAM predictions
Division Winner
Atlanta - 10-7
2024 Power Rank: 12th 2023 DVOA: 28th 2024 Schedule: 1st
The Falcons finished '23 7-10 despite unimpressive offensive & defensive DVOA ranked #24. They got a quality QB in Cousins for decent weapons, RB Robinson & receivers London, Pitts Mooney & Moore. They will score much more, particularly with their #6 ranked PFF o-line. The defense is less impressive with little star power & a very limited pass rush. New Coach Morris should help here. We like the Falcons to win the division based on their offense & #1 easiest schedule.
2nd Place Finish
Tampa Bay - 8-9
2024 Power Rank: 18th 2023 DVOA: 18th 2024 Schedule: 11th
QB Mayfield was very good in '23 with a career year & was resigned. They should score points given their quality WR's Godwin & Evans & an average o-line. The defense is good with talent at each level featuring DT Vae, LB David, CB Dean and S Winfield, Jr. We think Mayfield will regress as OC Canales, who is credited with Mayfield's improvement (as well as other NFL QB's) took the Carolina head coaching job.
3rd Place Finish
New Orleans - 7-10
2024 Power Rank: 20th 2023 DVOA: 15th 2024 Schedule: 5th
With Saints averaged 8 wins in Coach Allen's 1st 2 years. Cap problems have decimated the previously effective o-line, now ranked #32, dead last. That leaves QB Carr in peril, especially with RB Kamara's tanking stats - lower total yards, yards per touch & TD's. Carr has established good repor with WR's Olave & Shaheed. Their offense & defense DVOA numbers are average. Only a 5th easiest schedule gets them to 7 wins.
4th Place Finish
Carolina - 5-12
2024 Power Rank: 32rd 2023 DVOA: 32nd 2024 Schedule: 10th
Two coaches in 2 years, not good. Canales must revive QB Bryce Young and a punch-less offense ranked #31 by DVOA. The #20 ranked '24 o-line (PFF) doesn't help. Their #25 defense was little better in '23 & now has traded top dog LB Burns. DT Brown & CB Horn lead a questionable defensive lineup. Free agent signings were not exciting, overpaying for 2 o-linemen. Even the 10th easiest schedule won't save them, but we expect they will be more competitive than in 2023.