TEAM predictions
Division Winner
Detroit - 12-5
2024 Power Rank: 4th 2023 DVOA: 7th 2024 Schedule: 21th
Don't underestimate this 12-5 team that was a play or two away from the Super Bowl. Reader & Davenport bolster a d-line weakness & rookie CB Arnold with veteran CB Davis III might fix secondary issues, the Lions 2 biggest needs. They had the 5th highest points scored where they ranked 4th in DVOA. Rookie RB Gibbs looks like a stud behind the league's '24 #1 o-line (per PFF). QB Goff was great (2nd in yards, 10th in QBR/RTG & 30/12 TD/INT). We bet him 40-1 for '24 MVP on this ascending team we favor if Coach Campbell doesn't overthink it.
2nd Place Finish
Green Bay - 10-7
2024 Power Rank: 13th 2023 DVOA: 13th 2024 Schedule: 19th
QB Love elevated his game & this team to a respectable playoff run in '23. RB Jacobs a slight upgrade to injury prone Jones. We have concerns with the #14 DVOA o-line where a 7th rounder is headed for LT with Bahktiari departing. Their #27 DVOA defense in '23 has some great young pieces from solid drafts & adds S McKinney. LeFleur's 56 wins is the 2nd most all-time for 1st 5-years. We think the defense ascends making this a one of our dark horse Super Bowl teams at 19-1.
3rd Place Finish
Chicago - 9-8
2024 Power Rank: 15th 2023 DVOA: 22nd 2024 Schedule: 3rd
The Bears o-line improved in '23 that PFF ranks it #11 bodes well for #1 pick QB Williams, not to mention the NFL's best WR corp of DJ Moore, Williams (Chargers) & 1st rounder Odunze. A dismal #32 'defensive DVOA rank in '22 rose to #17 in '23. Veteran S Byard adds leadership in the secondary. Their solid 2nd best draft grade of "A" from us bodes well. We like them over the 8 1/2 win Vegas number with their #3 easiest schedule & -120 line to make the playoffs.
4th Place Finish
Minnesota - 5-12
2024 Power Rank: 25th 2023 DVOA: 23rd 2024 Schedule: 28th
The QB Cousins era ending & the 5th toughest schedule doesn't bode well in an improving division. Rookie McCarthy & Darnold don't inspire QB confidence short term despite WR studs Jefferson/Addison & PFF's 13th ranked o-line. The retooled defense has few stars beyond pass rusher Greenard & LB Van Ginkel. Respected DC Flores had the 11th ranked D in DVOA in '23, but there are lots of question marks there on paper. QB questions spells rebuild as the Vikings are at least 2 years away from respectability.