​

Our Conclusion

​​​

Playoffs

Manning's Super Bowl performances are well chronicled, but consider his 8-4 playoff record that would make him 9th in percentage wins among 25 current HOF quarterbacks. And he was 7-2 on the road including huge upsets against two elite Patriots teams, the 18-0 team which was arguably the best team of all-time, and a dominant 15-1 Packers team. Tack on 15 TD's and 2 picks in his playoff runs for a passer rating of 99.5. He has a top 7 passer rating in regular season and playoff play compared to current HOF quarterbacks. 

Win/Loss Record

Eli's .500 regular season record is pedestrian but it is the same as 20% of the quarterbacks currently in the HOF. Outside of Warren Moon, Dan Fouts and Joe Namath, the other 22 HOF quarterbacks were on long term dominant teams, many who are considered among the best of all-time.

​

Teammates Talent

Consider the lack of talent around Eli, particularly given the Giants terrible draft record from 2008 through 2016, half of his career. His only true #1 receivers were Amani Toomer, a non-game breaker possession receiver (only 3 years), Plaxico Burress (only 3 1/2 years) and Beckham, Jr. (less than 4 years of games) whose stats were the best of any receiver all-time (see link to our study below) with Eli and were cut in half in Cleveland in 2019. He did have productive Tight End Jeremy Shockey for 3 1/2 years also. His offensive lines were very good from 2006 to 2011, but some of the worst lines in the league the other 10 years of his career leading to high sack and fumble totals.  At running back he had a very productive, if not fumble prone Tiki Barber for 2 1/2 years, Brandon Jacobs (only 4 seasons over 570 yards) and Saquon Barkley for 1 year, totaling half of his career. Beckham is the only player on his offenses for any length of time that has a shot at the HOF.

​

Turnovers

Eli registered some of the highest turnover numbers of his era, a sizable negative. That said, while his amount of fumbles are alarming (6th all-time), he played in the 83rd most games of any player in NFL history. And while his 51st rated interception ratio of all-time is concerning, when computed into his Passer Ratings they are less of a factor given his high Passer Ratings noted in this study. This is particularly the case when looking at his 60% touchdown to interception ratio which is the same as HOFer Brett Favre and better than HOFers Terry Bradshaw and Joe Namath's 50%.

​

Eyeball Test/Era Peers Comparison

This is where HOF voters can make the most legitimate case to vote against Manning. While his playoff records are impressive and he passed for the 13th most yards in a single season (4,933) and for 6 touchdowns in 1 game, this is not a category where he stands out. ​​​His game to game eyeball test from 2012 to 2018 are not what we would call HOF level. Even behind the poor talent of his teams in those years he was rather pedestrian, if not occasionally poor. Additionally, his career as a whole when considering the passing era he played in and the performances of his peers does not stand out as a top 10 in a majority of his years. That said, many of those peers, Brady, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Warner, Ryan and his brother Peyton are all in or will be in the Hall.

 

Then again, he is clearly better statistically than these Hall of Famers:

Namath: 1 winning season 1970-77; more int. than TD's in 7 of 9 seasons (playing 10 games); 173 TD/220 interceptions; 50% passes completed.

Jurgensen: 69-71 career record; Playoffs- 0 starts, 6 for 12 passing, 3 interceptions. 

Blanda: 53-50 career record; 6.9% Interception Rating; 61 Passer Rating; 42 playoff passer rating.

Fouts: 86-84 career record; 254 touchdowns/242 interceptions; Playoffs- 3-4 record, 12 touchdowns/16 interceptions.

Griese: Playoffs: 6-5 record, 68 Passer Rating; Super Bowl: 98 average yards passing, 14 average attempts/game, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions.

Stabler: 194 career touchdowns and 222 career interceptions.

Dawson: Playoffs- 7 touchdowns, 8 interceptions.

​

Our Vote

Eli's "Eyeball" and "Versus Peers" tests are the only real negatives to his candidacy and they are substantial given their importance in the eyes of voters. But his statistical rankings among peers in this study including the study we performed to how he would rank against current HOFers indicate he belongs in. Add in the longevity, durability, consummate professionalism and positive impact on teammates and the team's/league image (something relevant in votes against Terrell Owens) we conclude he should be voted in, albeit not on the first ballot. It will likely be more like the 4th or 5th. If Eli is out then the quarterbacks in the section above need to unequivocally be out as they had worse careers than Eli by a mile:

​​