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Our 2024 Bets
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NCAA Tournament: North Carolina, 16-1
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NCAA Tournament: Auburn, 25-1 (loss)
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NCAA Tournament Final 4: Auburn, +550 (loss)
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NCAA Mtn West Conf Champ: Nevada, 5-1 (loss)
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NCAA Baseball Champ: Clemson, 28-1..
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.Stanley Cup: Colorado, 10-1
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NHL East Conf: Boston, +450
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NHL Presidents Cup: Toronto, 8-1.
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MLB: Texas under 89 1/2 wins.
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MLB: Minnesota over 86 1/2.
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MLB: St. Louis over 84 1/2 wins.
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MLB: San Francisco over 83 1.2.
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MLB Most Home Runs: V. Guerrero, 22-1.
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MLB NL Cy Young: E. Perez, 40-1.
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MLB AL Cy Young: C. Ragans, 20-1.
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MLB Most Strikeouts: C. Ragans, 25-1.
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NFL Offense POY: S. Barkley, 30-1
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NCAA Football Champ: Ole Miss, 15-1.
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4 Team Champs Parlay: Celtics, Avs, Phillies, 49ers, 3368-1
Super Bowl LIX Bet Picks
Using History as a Criteria:
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Avoid teams with pre-season odds greater than 22-1, they've won only 7 off 47 times (15%) from 1977-2024 and only 5 of 41 (12%) from 1983-2023.
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A great sweet spot is teams from 10-1 to 16-1, they've won 15 of 47 times (32%) from 1977 to 2023..
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Another sweet spot is teams between 10-1 and 22-1, winning 19 0f 47 times (40%) from 1977 to 2023.
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30 of 34 teams (88%) that won had preseason projected wins of 9.5 or over (based on a 17-game season).
Our Best Bets:
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Baltimore +950
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Buffalo 10-1
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Detroit 12-1
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Cincinnati 13-1
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Green Bay 19-1
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Philadelphia 20-1
Recent Underdogs
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Won 11 of last 21 games outright 52%
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Covered the spread in 13 of the last 17 and 17 of the last 23
Preseason Odds Tips
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Avoid teams with pre-season odds greater than 22-1, they've won only 7 off 47 times (15%) from 1977-2024 and only 5 of 41 (12%) from 1983-2023.
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A great sweet spot is teams from 10-1 to 16-1, they've won 15 of 47 times (32%) from 1977 to 2023..
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Another sweet spot is teams between 10-1 and 22-1, winning 19 0f 47 times (40%) from 1977 to 2023.
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30 of 34 teams (88%) that won had preseason projected wins of 9.5 or over (based on a 17-game season).
Spread Favorites
Super Bowl point spread favorites win 66% of the time but fail recently versus the spread:
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Win-loss record all-time: 38-20
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Versus the spread all-time: 29-27-2
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Since 2000 versus spread: 6-17, 26%
Game Longshots
Super Bowl underdogs by 10 points or more have won a remarkable 36% of games.
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Win-Loss record: 5-9
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Versus the spread: 6-7-1
Our Early Bet Picks
Spring 2024 Best Bets
Senior Analysts
Pete - Ravens, 9-1
Nate -
"Showtime" - Ravens, 9-1
Reed -
Kevin - Texans, 16-1
Evan -
"Shark" -
Special Situations Analysts
"Hammer" - Packers, 19-1
Chris P. -
Tyler -
Defending Champs
Super Bowl champs record of repeating the following year as champs:
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Teams repeated 9 times all-time in 57 tries or only 16%, twice in 24 times since 2000 or only 8%.
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No team has won 3 in a row.
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Losing Super Bowl teams returned the following year only 7 times in 57 or 12%.