Fantasy Pool Theory

How much is luck versus skill?

This analysis is for yearly redraft leagues and up to 5 keeper leagues, not 6+ keeper yearly dynasty leagues or daily fantasy play.
We assume one quarterback starter per week.
We assume a 15 player roster with at least 4 Injured Reserve spots.
We assume no limits on waiver or other player pickups.
Alterations from the assumptions above would yield similar conclusions below, but likely add more luck.
We make an assumption for this study that team General Managers are moderately serious enough to set their weekly lineups knowing how to use the software and it's helpful statistics and tips at least at a rudimentary level.

Two starting quarterback leagues with more than 8 teams seems ridiculous as teams would be required to play some low quality quarterbacks on occasion zapping the fun out of the competition. This is for less serious leagues or those desiring more luck.
League settings for less than 4 Injured Reserve rostered players seems unworthy as players get hurt and should remain on rosters. That said, a limit over 3 is fine.
Limiting the number of waiver or other player pick ups per week or year makes little sense. Good General Managers work the waiver wire to improve their team and compensate for injuries. Why limit this activity to a team GM who is already having bad luck?

We created the following categories with percentage of impact each has on how well a team performs:

Waiver Wire: 30% - Injuries and underperforming players require you to be good at replacing/upgrading players.
Injuries: 25% - The amount of injuries your team endures can make or break you. And you have no control.
Draft: 15% - IBM Watson type analytics project player draft positions and it's 1,000 programmers are better than 90% of us.
Schedule: 15% - My 2022 team led the other 11 teams in total yearly points after 10 weeks and I was 5-5 with limited injuries. Who you play on a given week and how much they surprise that week can drive you nuts. And you have zero control over this.
Good/Bad Year: 10% - Players over/under performing their pre-draft points projections is 50% luck with some skill that you sniffed it out via your pre-draft analysis.
Set Lineup: 5% - The analytics tell you who is injured and how many points Players should get. It's not brain surgery. However, you can seek late breaking injury information before game time that the software doesn't post adding some skill here.

Waiver Wire: 30% - 20 of the 35% is luck, past performance of waiver wire players is more unpredictable than drafted players.
Injuries: 25% - All 20 of this 25% is luck and something the GM has no control over. The 5% skill is avoiding injury prone players.
Draft: 15% - 10 of this 15% is luck. A monkey can pick the next best player projected or auto draft a good team.
Schedule: 15% - .15 of this 15% is luck. You can't control the schedule.
Good/Bad Year: 10% - 5 of this 10% is luck. The other 5% skill is a GM sensing a players upward trajectory likelihood.
Set Lineup: 5% - We'll count this 5% as skill on late breaking injury/active-non-active research. Other lineup work doesn't take a football genius to pick players with higher points projections. And are GM's really successful overriding the software projection?

Final Overall Skill Versus Luck Analysis: Skill-30% Luck-70%