Survivor Pool Theory | ProFootball Sidekick

Survivor pool theory
How much is luck versus skill?

Participants pick a team to win a game each week and advance if they do win; if team loses, participant eliminated.
Participants must pick a different team each week and not repeat any team picked throughout the contest.
The last participant left without enduring a losing week wins.

Select teams each week with the highest probability to win based on their own talent and opponent talent level.
Favor home teams.
Don't make your pick solely based on team records to date, especially early in the year.
Don't assume any pick is ever guaranteed to win. The NFL is made up of 32 college all-star teams. They are all good.

Avoid games where both teams are division rivals as upsets occur in this situation more often.
Beware of road games.
In pools of 25 or more participants you have to separate yourself from the crowd. So, don't always pick the biggest favorite because most other people will also. Seek the 2nd, 3rd or 4th best pick sometimes if you think they will win.
In pools of 25 or more participants save some of the best teams as practical to improve your odds later in the pool.
Pick your teams for the entire 18 week schedule in advance to ensure you have a good team matchup on difficult weeks. You will likely adjust this along the way as teams perform better or worse than pre-season projections.
In 100+ participant pools take risk by selecting somewhat risky teams that are less favored that you like. This will save better teams down the road for you.
In 100+ participant pools take risk by selecting somewhat risky teams that are less favored that you like to win that you think you will not likely pick later in the pool. This will save better teams down the road for you.

With the amount of evenly matched NFL teams in the league and the high number of upsets the amount of luck in these pools is substantial.
Using the tips above can add some skill to your picks and increase your odds of success.
Using your football knowledge and research of recent game result trends between teams you can increase your odds.
Taking into account weather factors in early season hot weather regions and late season cold weather regions can help also, not to mention dome teams playing outdoors.
In the 20+ years I've run our website based pool with 28-52 participants I conclude casual NFL fans win just as often as diehard fans that watch most games and study the league. So football knowledge, while important, does not seem to statistically offer a participant an advantage. Using the tips provided here will likely provide you a bigger advantage over other participants.

Conclusion of Skill Versus Luck: We see Survivor pools as 70% luck and 30% skill which makes it a great contest for all fans..