BETTING STRATEGIES
Some tips to improve your bets against Vegas spreads.
1.
Favor road teams vs the spread as they covered 53.1% of the time in a recent 12 year study.
2.
Favor underdogs teams vs the spread as they covered 52.1% of the time in a recent 12 year study.
3.
Favor road underdogs teams vs the spread as they covered 53.8% of the time in a recent 12 year study. Road favorites covered 51.4%
4.
Fade poor teams who won the previous week. There is a natural let down.
5.
Bet against teams playing their third road game in a row, as rare as the NFL allows this to happen.
6.
Bet against west coast teams traveling to the east coast, particularly 1pm EST games where the west coast team is essentially playing at 10am in their body clock.
7.
Beware of betting against teams performing poorly the prior week - teams rebound.
8.
Avoid teams traveling to Florida in September and early October due to the high humidity.
9.
Bet the underdog in the Ravens/Steelers game when the spread is three or more. They are prone to close games and this bet is 21-3-3 in their last 27.
10.
Be aware Green Bay and Dallas lines are inflated to compensate for their fans who bet them heavily, often blindly.
11.
Beware of dome teams playing outside in cold weather.
12.
Beware of 5 point favorites as the 5 area is considered a "dead area" and not worthy of a bet on the favorite.
13.
Favor favorites when the line starts at 3 or less and moves over 3..
14.
Beware betting teasers. They are considered sucker bets by big betting experts. Generally stick with one team versus the spread or the Moneyline.
15.
Beware cashing out of in-bet online cash out offers like those offered on DraftKings. Mathematically they offer very poor payout amounts and heavily favor the sportsbook.
16.
The Giants are the best road team versus the spread and worst at home since 2018. And they were the only team with a better road record than home from 2008-2017.
17.
Bet Giants on the road as they are the best road team ATS since 2018. Fade them at home where they are the worst ATS in the same period.
18.
The Ravens have the highest winning percentage at home versus their road winning percentage in recent years.
19.
In the second divisional game bet on the team that lost the first match-up either versus the spread or Moneyline. Division rivalries are bitter and often close games.
20.
Bet teams who lost the previous week by 21 or more points and avoid 21 or more point winners from the prior week.
21.
Bet double digit point spread underdogs against the spread, beware double digit favorites. It is hard for double digit favorites to cover in the NFL.
22.
Place bets as early as you possibly can. Most bets that change the line during the course of a week are made very early or very late in the week and are heavily influenced by large dollar amount sharp Vegas professional bettors. So bet early before the line moves if you know what you are doing. If you don't know what you are doing, don't bet or bet small amounts for entertainment purposes.
23.
Don't bet teaser bets where your line change goes through zero. Few games end in a tie, one or two point finishes, deminishing the value of the line change through zero.
24.
The sweet spot for teaser bets is when betting the favorite line down from 8 1/2 to 2 1/2 or 8 to 2. Conversely, bet the dog up to 8 1/2 from 2 1/2 or up to 8 from 2. The reason for this is few games end in a tie or a 1 or 2 point margin. 24.6% of games end in 3 or 7 point margins.
25.
Don't just bet good teams versus the spread. "Sharp" (professional) gamblers know weaker teams frequently cover the spread as underdogs. Every NFL team is a college all-star team.
26.
Lean toward betting under the over/under line in division matchup games. The importance of division games makes teams naturally more conservative.
27.
Bet favorites off a bye, recently they are covering the spread 57% of the time. The underdog not off a bye is 49%.
28.
Betting Coach of the Year: 10-year history of winner- 1) Coaches teams average 12.2 wins, 2) team wins 5.7 more games than prior year, 3) 93.6% of votes went to teams making the playoffs.
29.
Use team DVOA, an advanced analytics formula, to evaluate the true performance of teams for the season to date. It ranks teams offense, defense and special teams 1-32. https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/team-total-dvoa
INJURY IMPACT
Impact of players inactivations on point spreads, which for non-quarterbacks is usually < 2 1/2 points, QB's 4 to 7.
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2021
Player Declared Inactive: Derrick Henry, RB, Tenn
Point Spread Movement: 3
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2021
Player Declared Inactive: Aaron Rodgers QB, GB
Point Spread Movement: 7
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2021
Player Declared Inactive: Russell Wilson, QB, Sea
Point Spread Movement: 7
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2021
Player Declared Inactive: Kalil Mack, Edge, Chi
Point Spread Movement: 1/2
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2021
Player Declared Inactive: Devante Adams, WR, GB
Point Spread Movement: 1 1/2
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2020
Player Declared Inactive: Cam Newton, QB, NE
Point Spread Movement: 4
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2019
Player Declared Inactive: Sam Darnold, QB, NYJ
Point Spread Movement: 3 1/2
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2018
Player Declared Inactive: Marcus Mariota, QB, Tenn
Point Spread Movement: 3 1/2
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2017
Player Declared Inactive: Derek Carr, QB, LAR
Point Spread Movement: 1
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2017
Player Declared Inactive: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Point Spread Movement: 10
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2017
Player Declared Inactive: Desean Watson, QB, Hou
Point Spread Movement: 7
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2015
Player Declared Inactive: Odell Beckham, Jr, WR, NYG
Point Spread Movement: 2
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2014
Player Declared Inactive: Ndamukong Suh, DT, TB
Point Spread Movement: no change
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2014
Player Declared Inactive: JJ Watt, Edge, Hou
Point Spread Movement: 1/2
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2014
Player Declared Inactive: Tony Romo, QB, Dal
Point Spread Movement: 3 1/2
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2013
Player Declared Inactive: Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
Point Spread Movement: 8 1/2