TEAM predictions
Division Winner
Kansas City 12-5
2024 Power Rank: 1st 2023 DVOA: 5th 2024 Schedule: 12th
It's hard to bet against the 1st team since 2004 to win it back-to-back & 6 straight AFC Championship games. Mahomes is the best QB we've ever seen, pulling it off with tons of WR drops & problems in '23 where his average yards per pass tanked to under 5. The interior o-line is top shelf but we have serious concerns outside where Taylor at RT has been a problem & projected new LT was arrested for pot possession in May for the #7 PFF ranked unit. The #8 DVOA defense has good young pieces at each level due to good drafts. Our top Super Bowl bet is the finalists to be the Chiefs versus the Eagles, 31-1.
2nd Place Finish
Los Angeles - 9-8
2024 Power Rank: 22nd 2023 DVOA: 19th 2024 Schedule: 2nd
Harbaugh is the Chargers 1st real coach in 4 tries. QB Herbert is top 7 in the NFL behind a well reconstructed o-line (PFF #12). They over- hauled the WR & RB rooms w/ Williams/Allen departed as they move to a more run oriented attack. There Ekeler departs for Gus Williams & Dobbins, the NFL's more underrated (& injured) back with 5.8 career yards per carry. The #26 DVOA D has cornerstone pieces & some no-names but Harbaugh should improve this unit. We love the Chargers over the 8 1/2 win Vegas line with the NFL's 2nd easiest schedule.
3rd Place Finish
Las Vegas - 6-11
2024 Power Rank: 24th 2023 DVOA: 21st 2024 Schedule: 24th
Coach Pierce has ample offensive weapons behind a mediocre o-line. QB's O'Connell & Minshew don't inspire in a passing league. Plus RB stud Jacobs departed. The defense is underrated & rocketed from 31st in DVOA in '22 to 8th in '23. DT Wilkins joins Pro Bowler Crosby forming a dynamic duo up front. The rest of the largely no-name defense has been effective. Overall, our optimism here is muted.
4th Place Finish
Denver - 5-12
2024 Power Rank: 30th 2023 DVOA: 24th Schedule: 25th
Coach Payton continues to deal with cap issues from the (departed) QB Wilson debacle. RB J. Williams & WR Sutton represent limited offensive star power around a middling o-line where QB's Stidham and rookie Nix don't inspire us. Payton will have to be creative. The 30th ranked '23 DVOA D was horrible where only the NFL's best CB Surtain II stands out. Our Power Rank had them 13th in the '23 preseason but tanking to 24th as of now. Tough schedule, could be last in the AFC.