TEAM predictions
Division Winner
Houston 10-7
2024 Power Rank: 9th 2023 DVOA: 12th 2024 Schedule: 26th
Coach of the Year snub Ryans pulled off a massive 10-7 division crown shocker behind a strong draft including rookie phenom QB Stroud aided by the 7h easiest schedule. At WR rookie Dell was great before injury & Collins broke out nicely. Now adding Diggs completes an elite unit. The o-line is ranked #22 by PFF but overall the roster is ranked 7th. They played only 2 playoff teams in '23 going 0-2. Now they get the 7th toughest schedule with 7 playoff teams plus the pesky Jets.
2nd Place Finish
Indianapolis - 9-8
2024 Power Rank: 19th 2023 DVOA: 20th 2024 Schedule: 7th
Rookie QB Richardson looked promising before injury. They still went 9-8. Their miserable -138 point differential in '23 rose to -20. Their #20 defense (PFF) was unimpressive & lacks secondary talent. PFF's 10th ranked OL in '23 is now 3rd. And stud RB Taylor returns healthy. We see them about the same as in '23 given their 7th easiest league schedule which includes the Broncos, Patriots and Titans (twice).
3rd Place Finish
Jacksonville - 8-9
2024 Power Rank: 23th 2023 DVOA: 10th 2024 Schedule: 14th
The Jags sputtered down the stretch losing 4 of 5. QB Lawrence hasn't delivered as his career stats mirror Daniel Jones, albeit Coach Pederson has him making a star out of TE Engram who had 114 catches. The defense surprised by raising their '23 #26 ranked DVOA to #10. Their OL, ranked #23 (PFF) for '24, is still a problem. Lawrence must become the franchise QB the Jags expected when they drafted him #1 overall given their top shelf receivers. And #2 overall pick LB Walker has yet to deliver as well.
4th Place Finish
Tennessee 6-11
2024 Power Rank: 31st 2023 DVOA: 26th 2024 Schedule: 27th
Coach Vrabel is out & the rebuild is in full swing as RB Henry departed as well. The 25th ranked offense in '23 should improve with additions Pollard, Boyd & Ridley. QB Levis was ineffective after his first game gem. The '23 o-line rank of 32nd is an issue at #30 for '24. Free agent CB Sneed will enhance the secondary but the front 7 has proven to be a liability. We're sellers here. Even in the weakest division we see 5 or 6 wins.