TEAM predictions
Division Winner
New York - 11-6
2024 Power Rank: 7th 2023 DVOA: 25th 2024 Schedule: 4th
You have to love a 7-10 team to rebound that had no starting QB. Rodgers returns & the Jets finally upgraded the teams biggest weakness, the o-line. Adding Tackles Smith, Moses & #1 pick Fashanu was big - plus G Simpson. Weapons are adequate. Even average QB play should vault this team to the top of the AFC East. The team is stacked with talent as the defense was #3 in DVOA in '23 anchored by the league's best d-line. Very bullish on their regular season prospects: We bet them over 9 1/2 wins early at +135 & we think division champs is likely.
2nd Place Finish
Miami 10-7
2024 Power Rank: 8th 2023 DVOA: 6th 2024 Schedule: 8th
Tua had this #2 DVOA offense humming until late in '23 when the deep passing game faltered, grounding the whole attack. Coach MacDonald is an offensive genius with great skill players here to maneuver. But an mediocre o-line losing 2 interior blockers spells trouble. The defense has decent pieces and gets Chubb and Phillips back from injury. DC Fangio is gone so some adjustment here is expected. Their CB's Ramsey & Fuller are high end. Decent 22-1 Super Bowl champ shot if they can avoid cold weather playoffs games which isn't likely.
3rd Place Finish
Buffalo - 10-7
2024 Power Rank: 11th 2023 DVOA: 3rd 2024 Schedule: 23rd
The defense has lost lots of pieces in the last 2 years due to cap issues. On offense their top weapon Diggs left also, leaving a huge hole for #1 pick - Florida State's WR Coleman to fill. But the Bills have quietly formed PFF's #8 o-line in front of QB Allen who we believe is drastically underrated & possibly the 2nd best NFL QB given his consistency & availability (health). Somehow he gets blamed for losses even when he plays well. Any rushing attack will keep this team dangerous.
4th Place Finish
New England - 5-12
2024 Power Rank: 29th 2023 DVOA: 27th 2024 Schedule: 31st
A full rebuild is under way via new Coach Mayo & #1 pick QB Maye. The offensive has been horrific where we remain one of few optimists in the future of Maye who will have to start his career with few true weapons. Compounding issues here is the PFF #28 o-line where talent has departed in a massive regression. Their '22 stellar defensive DVOA at #3 fell to #9, but proved still highly effective. Belichick's departure prompts defensive questions as does the leagues #1 toughest schedule.